Use of shock index and lactate to predict mortality in acute heart failure patients in emergency department
Özet
Objective: To compare the usefulness of shock index (SI) and lactate for prediction of 24-hour and 28-day mortality in acute
heart failure (AHF) patients.
Study Design: A descriptive study.
Place and Duration of the Study: Balikesir University Hospital, Balikesir, Turkey; from February 2019 to August 2020.
Methodology: One hundred and twelve AHF patients presenting to ED were recruited into the study. Usefulness of lactate and
SI in predicting mortality at 24-hour and 28-day, was evaluated.
Results: The area under the curve (AUC) was found to be 0.825 for lactate and 0.818 for SI in predicting 24-hour mortality.
There was significant difference between the diagnostic performances of 2 markers in predicting 24-hour mortality. AUC was
found to be 0.775 for lactate and 0.722 for SI in predicting 28-day mortality. No significant difference was found between the
diagnostic performances of the two markers in predicting 28-day mortality. The 24-hour non-survivor rates were found to be
86.67% in patients with lactate levels >2.57; 76.47% in patients with SI >0.94, and 93.33% in patients with lactate levels >2.57
or SI >0.94. The 28-day non-survivor rates were found to be 64.71% in patients with lactate levels >2.57; 70.59% in patients
with SI >0.82, and 82.35% in patients with lactate levels >2.57 or SI >0.82.
Conclusion: Lactate level and SI of AHF patients calculated in ED triage may be used to predict mortality, and simultaneous
use of both parameters may be more helpful.
